Rachel Williamson interviewed Dr Fraser Thompson for 

One of the co-founders of the giant Sun Cable solar and battery project in the Northern Territory has urged Australia to make “big bets” on solar and battery recycling, sustainable aviation fuels and green exports, part of an estimated $6.6 trillion of green energy ideas in the Asia-Pacific.


Dr Fraser Thompson, a co-founder of the Sun Cable project now being led by software billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes is also the co-founder of development and advisory firm Cyan Ventures, which has released a white paper on Australia’s green industry opportunities.


“We need investors to take the lead and build the lighthouse projects to create momentum,” Thompson says


But for big ideas to get off the ground, investors and governments must back themselves to support still-early stage technologies and businesses.


“Take the circular economy for example. Establishing clear pricing mechanisms, such as extended producer responsibility schemes for key waste streams, is crucial to attract investment,” he told RenewEconomy.


One of his big bets is on “sustainable” aviation fuels, also known as (renewable) power to liquids, which has already got some government backing in Australia.
In July last year applications opened for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency’s $30 million fund for the federal government’s Jet Zero initiative, and in May Qantas said it had set aside $400 million to invest in sustainable aviation fuel projects and research.


The white paper eyed off Power-to-Liquid (PtL), where renewable electricity is used to make green hydrogen that is in turn used in concert with carbon dioxide to produce a sustainable aviation fuel.


Alternatively, CSIRO and Boeing identified farm waste as having significant potential in their Sustainable Aviation Fuel Roadmap report in August last year.


“Australia has all the prerequisites to be a global leader,” the Cyan Ventures report said. “Lowest cost renewable energy resources…land availability… and a significant domestic market to help early scale.”


But what is required to move the industry forward more quickly is a plan outlining what it will take to be a global leader in power-to-liquid production.


This would involve initial projects to prove the potential – the report said partnerships with airlines and Defence would be necessary – more R&D funding, and policies such as mandates for airlines to buy a certain amount of sustainable fuel to encourage investment.


Recycling and a circular economy is an area which would require a lot more government help to get off the ground from banning products such as timber or e-waste from landfills to lifting state landfill levies to fund recycling infrastructure.


Already researchers are pointing out the potential for solar panel recycling, saying it’s a 680,000 tonne a year opportunity by 2030.Three solar and battery recycling companies won a Cooperative Research Centres (CRC) grant in the last round, as a solar panel industry begins to emerge with the likes of Reclaim PV, PV Industries, and Elecsome, and the government continues to suggest it will include the sector into its product stewardship scheme.


And the white paper’s clean exports idea is another which is often talked about, given Australia’s natural abundance of solar and wind and critical minerals.
Possible exports include green steel and iron, or exported electrons via long distance High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission lines.


Thompson and his co-author and Cyan Ventures cofounder Shaun Chau say the government should be directing incentives towards industries operating in clean exports, such as through production tax credits or contracts for difference that would provide short term support for new entrepreneurs.


And they return to the perennial bugbear of the broader renewable energy industry – approval times.


“New approvals process that would be more timely, robust and prioritise onshore value-add,” they write.


“The approvals process is currently too slow and does not prioritise the most important opportunities for Australian industry. Australia could provide priority environmental assessments and approvals for projects deemed material for realising Australia’s exporting superpower vision.”

Read Cyan Venture's White Paper in full in 'Related Insights' below.

Sun Cable co-founder urges “big bets” on solar and battery recycling, and green exports

Cyan Venture's has released it's inaugural white paper - 

Building the green economy: The time for Big Bets. 

“Big Bet” approach needed for $6.6 trillion economic opportunity in shift to net zero

4 April 2024, Melbourne: A new approach is needed to unlock the “Big Bet” opportunities valued at $6.6trillion in the Asia Pacific region alone, Cyan Ventures proposes in its inaugural White Paper. 

Cyan Ventures builds the Big Bets needed to transition to a low carbon, nature positive economy. These Big Bets are the new technologies and markets - which, with the right market conditions and regulations, will meaningfully accelerate the breadth and pace of the transition to a nature positive, low carbon, green economy. 

The current narrative in Australia is primarily focused on the potential risks and costs of the environmental challenge we face. Merely six years away, this is what is at risk:

the property market is expected to lose $571 billion in value by 2030 due to climate change and extreme weather;

as temperatures rise, workers in exposed industries may need to reduce their exposure to heat or the physical intensity of their work, which could cost the economy over $420 billion.

reduced agricultural productivity and labour productivity as a result of climate change is projected to exceed $19 billion by 2030.

But there is a viable pathway to address climate change and biodiversity risks, that could also drive significant economic and investment value. Past work by Cyan Ventures co-founder Dr. Fraser Thompson, the World Economic Forum and Temasek, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, has identified $6.6trillion of economic opportunity in the Asia Pacific region alone from transitioning to a low carbon, green economy. 

But only one-third of these opportunities are receiving significant business and investor focus today. The remaining $4.4 trillion parts of the opportunity receive only marginal attention from investors, even though they are feasible, could have a large impact, and have investors ready to deploy capital. 

Cyan Ventures identified the need for a new approach, focused on Big Bets to harness this opportunity. 

Fraser Thompson, co-founder of Cyan Ventures 

uses his experience as co-founder of Sun Cable to highlight this approach: “If you took a normal engineering approach to developing Sun Cable, it never would have happened.” 

“Before you even start developing a Big Bet, you need to focus on identifying the core enablers needed to make a Big Bet a success. That’s how Cyan is building the Big Bet projects. We identify regulatory structures, the offtake markets, the supply chain gaps and we leverage our advisory work to unlock these enablers. 

“We then build out the concept - from the business case to the financial model, secure the early value milestones and through our global network, put together the best development team to secure the initial investment needed to support the project through to financial close.” 

Cyan Ventures’ inaugural White Paper has identified three areas which have the potential to be as significant as Sun Cable, but to date are receiving limited investor interest: 

Positioning Australia as a world leader in sustainable aviation fuel

Closing the loop to eliminate waste and capture value

Specific interventions are required to accelerate these Big Bets - ranging from shifting reporting standards through to introducing new financial products and mechanisms. But the three consistent “non-negotiables” for creating success in this area are: 

 Further research and attention by policymakers and business leaders is needed to shift the focus from risk mitigation to opportunity creation. 

 Most of these opportunities involve many different sectors. Business collaboration, particularly cross-sectoral collaboration needs to be scaled up and lessons shared on how to shift from talk to action. 

3. Shifting mindsets from regulating risk to enabling opportunity. 

In almost every one of these opportunity areas, there is a crucial role for government policy, whether it be around pricing of externalities or addressing information failures. Policymaking needs to shift from thinking about regulating against risks to thinking about how policy can enable businesses and investors to go after these opportunities.

Cyan Ventures exists to build the Big Bets needed to transition to a low carbon, nature positive economy. We develop and incubate new technologies and markets - which, with the right market conditions and regulations, will meaningfully accelerate the breadth and pace of the transition to a nature positive, low carbon, green economy. Our advisory work focuses on partnering with governments, NGOs, companies and investors that are looking to accelerate progress on sustainability project development and investment. www.cyanventures.com.au 

Ranya Alkadamani | ranya@impactgroupinternational.com | +61 434 664 58

Cyan Venture's Releases Inaugural White Paper: The Time for Big Bets

Marion Rae recently reported on Cyan Venture's first white paper in the Canberra Times:

"A new venture is trying to woo investors to lay a wager on the "big bets" that could underpin Australia's future economy.

Fraser Thompson, co-founder of prospective solar exporter Sun Cable, says he has launched project development and advisory firm Cyan Ventures to incubate big ideas that stack up in a green economy.

"We need thousands of big bets in different areas of the sustainability transition," Dr Thompson said.

The firm's first white paper, released on Thursday, narrows it down to Australia becoming a world leader in sustainable aviation fuel, a clean export superpower and making money from eliminating waste.

But government policymaking needed to shift from regulating against threats to thinking about how policy could enable businesses and investors to go after opportunities, he said.
Most decision makers focus on the risks, with the property market expected to lose $571 billion in value by 2030 due to climate change and extreme weather.
Defence personnel and emergency responders are already at risk. 

As temperatures rise, workers in other exposed industries might need to change the way they work, which could cost the economy more than $420 billion.
Biodiversity loss and climate change could pose large risks to the tourism market for Australia.

Reduced agricultural and labour productivity from climate change and the death of pollinators is projected to exceed $19 billion by 2030.

But there is a viable pathway to address climate change and biodiversity risks, that could also drive significant economic and investment value, according to Cyan.

Banks find it easy to understand solar and wind farms but lack the incentives to properly assess new areas, according to the white paper.

For most sustainability business opportunities, there tend to be several "market failures" to deal with, including lack of regulatory frameworks, pricing signals and information gaps for investors.

Advocacy and investment skills will be vital, rather than the traditional engineering focus, to generate change and profits.

Understanding the focus areas, building a coalition across the economy, and ending a fixation with risk are put forward as the three "non-negotiable" ways of accelerating change.

Past work by Dr Thompson, the World Economic Forum and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund has identified $6.6 trillion of economic opportunity in the Asia Pacific region alone from the energy and nature transition that is under way.

However, only one-third of these green economy opportunities are receiving significant attention, even though they are feasible and could have a large impact.''

Venture seeks 'Big Bets' on New Clean, Green Economy

 about Cyan Ventures, describing the firm's approach to developing Big Bets.

An excerpt of the article can be found below:

"As business looks to the federal budget to see what money is available, Quinbrook’s David Scaysbrook says energy transition players should focus on making it faster and simpler to get projects off the ground, rather than just government cash payouts.

Federal handouts will always be welcome by business but Australia can’t beat the US in a spending battle, so instead should concentrate on its natural advantages.

Nufarm’s Greg Hunt argues government should recognise the role farmers can have in decarbonising liquid fuel and harness that potential through a combination of market incentives and fuel ­standards.

Vast quantities of Australian canola are already shipped to Europe as a fuel, and his Nuseed Carinata, a non-food winter oil seed crop from Argentina, is being crushed by France-based Saipol as a biofuel. BP is committed to converting the Carinata oil into sustainable aviation fuel.

Australia has more solar power per square kilometre than any other continent. Energy veteran Scaysbrook says Australia has many of the things the world is looking for: large tracts of open land, deep water ports and an abundance of natural renewables.

However, it takes too long to get projects going.

Each year 58 million petajoules of solar energy fall on Australia but in 2021 Australia converted just 100 petajoules of solar to electricity.

A shake-up of the bureaucracy and policy around projects wouldn’t cost any money, but the whole-of-government mindset to boost the energy transition, which requires changes from the bottom up, is harder work.

The call is by no means new, but under successive regimes, there is plenty of talk but little co-ordinated action.

Last month Rod Sims and Ross Garnaut at the Super Power Institute took the matter a step further, advocating a carbon levy on fossil fuel producers to help fund Australian industry.

They argued markets work best when firms have to pay the costs their activities impose on others and are rewarded for the benefits they confer on others.

Cyan Ventures founder Fraser Thompson has his focus on the wider sustainability model, arguing only one third of identified technology opportunities have an active focus, so the market is missing opportunities.

Cyan is a new firm that aims to be an incubator for big-ticket transition projects.

Thompson, with brother Mac and David Griffin, were the founders of the Northern Territory Sun Cable project before Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon Brookes got involved.

The former McKinsey partner will join with Shaun Chau (ex Accenture) at the firm, which opens its doors in Sydney and Melbourne this week.

Cyan Ventures is focused on building big projects across the sustainability space (including the food system, built environment, and energy/materials).

Thompson argues there is capital available, but not the pipeline of really good ideas to attract that capital.

Scaysbrook cut his teeth in Australia in the mid-1990s running US utility NRG’s local shop during the Victorian privatisation.

Quinbrook has $US8bn under management, with present projects including the large-scale Gemini solar farm in Nevada, Cleve Hill solar project in Kent in Britain and the Sun Cable project in the Northern Territory, which is now focused on powering Darwin while keeping the options open for Singapore.

Mike Cannon-Brookes’ Grok Ventures is a Quinbrook investor, which explains how it got involved in the NT Sun Cable project.

It is also in the process of selecting a manufacturer for its proposed polysilicon factory in Townsville.

Polysilicon is a basic building block for both solar panels and computer chips, and Quinbrook is hoping the project ranks among the greenest polysilicon plants in the world, given its access to low-cost renewable power at ­Lansdown.

Thompson argues that “new funding models are needed. They don’t need to necessarily be in the form of project subsidies, but could be the government using its balance sheet strategically to underwrite early-stage commercial contracts to reduce merchant risk.”

He rejects the opposition thought bubble on nuclear on the basis of cost and time to build – not to mention just which electorates would house the plants."

Incubator for Big Ticket Transactions

Aviation is one of the fastest growing sectors, but also one in which carbon emissions reduction can be the most challenging. Fortunately, there is a long-term solution in the form of sustainable aviation fuel, particularly power-to-liquid, and Australia has all the prerequisites to be a global leader, with potential exports of A$60 billion per year. However, making this happen will require rethinking our current approaches, particularly in terms of policy mechanisms. In this perspective piece, we provide an overview of the aviation industry and its decarbonisation challenge, explore the role of power-to-liquid sustainable aviation fuel and the potential for Australia to benefit.

Sustainable aviation fuel will be core to the efforts of decarbonisation in the aviation sector

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2022 aviation accounted for 2% of global energy-related CO2 emissions, having grown faster in recent decades than rail, road or shipping. As international travel demand recovers following the Covid-19 pandemic, aviation emissions in 2022 reached almost 800 Mt CO2, about 80% of the pre-pandemic level.

Electric, electric-hydrogen and hydrogen-powered aircraft could support decarbonisation, but challenges such as lower energy density and higher weight requirements affecting flight range and the need for extensive new infrastructure mean that they will only be a small share of the answer. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published a pathway for net zero emissions by 2050 for the aviation sector and noted that 65% of emissions reduction for the aviation sector would come from widespread use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). SAF are ‘drop-in’ fuels that don’t require any changes to aircraft, engines, or infrastructure and don’t affect safety or performance. They are produced from feedstock that absorb CO2 while reducing emissions during use. Depending on the technology used, SAF can be ‘dropped in’ or blended with fossil-based fuels. This reduces the carbon intensity of the fuel used by the aircraft.

The demand for SAF is poised to grow rapidly due to regulatory and company targets, incentives, and fuel security concerns. The EU Commission has mandated that traditional jet fuel be blended with SAF starting in 2025. Aviation fuel suppliers must supply SAF for at least 2% of overall fuels, increasing to 32% in 2040 and 63% in 2050. Partly in response to these regulatory requirements, airlines have been announcing their own targets. For example, Qantas has targeted 10% of their fuel use to come from SAF by 2030 and approximately 60% by 2050. Government incentives also play a role, nowhere more prominently than in the US. The U.S. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, introduced in 2021 by the Biden Administration, has ambitious targets for SAF production, backed by large subsidies. Fuel security, although less often discussed, is likely to be another important driver. For example, Australia imports roughly 77% of its aviation fuel needs, and just four countries supply 90% of these imports. Safeguarding domestic supply, including for our defence forces, will require a need for thinking about domestic SAF production.

There are different SAF pathways, but power-to-liquid is the likely long-term option

There are many pathways to make SAF. Broadly, these pathways cluster into two groups based on the feedstock that is used:

Biofuels feedstocks, where biological residues are treated and transformed to SAF

1. A Power-to-Liquid (Power-to-Liquids) feedstock, where electricity is used to make green hydrogen that is in turn used in concert with carbon dioxide to produce SAF.

2. Biofuels are more cost competitive today, but have challenges to scale (particularly given the land requirements); they create tradeoffs with arable land for food; and have questionable CO2 impacts (due to the burning of CO2). Studies by the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) show power-to-liquid will have the lowest future cost of different SAF options, and power-to-liquid is forecast to account for the largest share of SAF supply by 2050. Cyan Ventures has developed a detailed cost model for PtL and we have identified technology pathways that could lead to PtL being a cost competitive supply option in Australia by 2030.

Australia can be a global leader in power-to-liquid, creating a A$60b plus annual market

Australia has three significant advantages when it comes to producing power-to-liquid (PtL) sustainable aviation fuel:

 Renewable energy is around 56% of the total cost of power-to-liquid production, and Australia has some of the most cost competitive solar (and wind) production globally.

Only 2% of Australian land is enough to supply the world’s total aviation fuel needs.

Significant domestic market to help early scale:

 Australia’s demand for aviation fuel is growing rapidly. Assuming 10% of SAF blend by 2030, this could lead to up to 1340 million litres of demand.

Longer term, the economic opportunity is immense. IATA Forecast that global SAF production needs to be 449 billion litres to meet 2050 Net Zero. Assuming 50% of global demand can be supplied from PtL and that Australia can supply 20% of this volume (a not unreasonable target), this would equate to over A$60 billion of export revenue annually. This could be the second largest export sector for Australia in the future (only behind iron ore).

Making this happen requires a rethink of our policy and business approaches

The establishment of the Australian Jet Zero Council in June 2023 is an important signal of intent by the Australian Federal Government. However, much needs to be done. Our research has identified nine critical policy levers to stimulate demand and supply-side levers for PtL production. Australia has limited support in only three levers, and virtually no support in six levers. Government policy can shape both demand as observed in Europe, the US and most recently in Singapore (e.g., SAF blend mandates, procurement policies) and supply (e.g., input cost credits, direct investments).

Power-to-liquid sustainable aviation fuel will likely be the major pathway for decarbonisation of the aviation sector and Australia could potentially benefit significantly by becoming a global production hub. Making this aspiration a reality will require a major rethink of supply and demand side stimulation measures.

Green Jet: The opportunity for Australia to become a global leader in sustainable aviation fuels

Cyan Ventures is a specialist sustainability project development and advisory firm.


Cyan Venture

Cyan Ventures is supporting the commercialisation of clean energy technology through its work for the Trailblazer for Recycling and Clean Energy (TRaCE).

TRaCE is a $250m+ partnership between University of New South Wales, University of Newcastle, a range of industry partners and the Australian government to accelerate the transition to sustainable recycling and clean energy solutions and systems.

The TRaCE programme supports commercialisation of new clean technology across four main areas: advanced solar technology, clean energy and storage, green fuels and circular economy. TRaCE accelerates commercialisation by co-funding and facilitating the R&D commercialisation process, building critical skills and supporting the development of a broader ecosystem of research teams, industry partners and start-ups to help commercialise climate technology.


Cyan Ventures is supporting TRaCE through analysing R&D investments in NSW and impact modelling that demonstrates the decarbonisation benefits of the programme.

Commercialising 250m+ of Clean Tech Research

Dr. Fraser Thompson presented to the Climate Leaders Coalition (CLC) in August 2023 to share insights on biodiversity risks and opportunities.

We need to think beyond just tackling carbon emissions.

 63% of GDP in Asia Pacific – US$19.5 trillion – is at risk of disruption from biodiversity and nature loss.

There are massive opportunities from this transition.

 Asia Pacific could unlock US$4.3 trillion of value in 2030 through nature-positive development and 232 million jobs by 20303.

3. Capturing the opportunities requires a different approach.

 US$1.1 trillion in capital investment will be required to support the business opportunities identified, with new business models to succeed

New Green Economy: Climate and nature positive opportunities

Building the Green Grid: The opportunity for green electricity exports in Asia

Dr. Fraser Thompson presented to the Energy & Resources Law Association in September 2023 in Melbourne to share perspectives on grid integration and renewable electricity exports in Asia.

Achieving net zero in a cost efficient and realistic manner requires cross-border trade of electricity. 

In many regions in the Asia Pacific, there is limited ability to deploy renewables due to high population density and limited suitable land (e.g., mountainous / forested territory). Relevant facts to consider are that population density in Asia is 10x larger than global average, and a solar farm requires 10x more land to generate the same electricity output as a coal plant. We also cannot risk trading off biodiversity loss to achieve our decarbonisation objectives (e.g., clearing mangrove forests to build solar farms) .

The economic opportunity for Australia in this transition, given our landmass and renewable energy resources, is immense. 

58 million petajoules of solar energy fall on Australia per annum. Australia converted 100 petajoules of solar resource to electricity in 2020-21. Australia’s solar resource can power the world 100 times over. Meeting all of global energy demand would need less than 5% of Australia’s land. The technological advances in high voltage direct current (HVDC) cable now make it possible to export renewable electricity in a reliable, cost effective manner. Voltage has been improving at over 10% per annum over the last 20 years for example, reducing transmission losses and improving the economics of electricity exports.

will require 1) Boosting local manufacturing in key supply chain areas (e.g., HVDC cable); 2) Innovation to overcome technical challenges; and 3) Filling in missing regulatory frameworks. The Australia-Singapore Green Economy Agreement is a potentially important template for tackling the regulatory challenge.

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