At Smart Energy Conference 2026 last week, Cyan Ventures’ Michael Robinson delivered a keynote on the financing challenge sitting underneath Australia’s circular materials transition.
The argument was straightforward. Australia is investing hundreds of billions in renewable infrastructure. Most of the materials value at end of life is currently leaving the country. The window to change that is open now while the rollout is still ahead of us.
The cost curves have already moved. Over the last five years, rooftop solar is down 22 percent. Battery storage at four-hour duration is down 26 percent. Wind onshore is up 67 percent. Transmission is up 54 percent. Money tends to follow economics. The build mix is tilting further toward solar and storage than current plans have fully priced in.
Household storage hit utility-scale economics in 2025. Australia installed 285,000 home batteries in nine months under the Cheaper Home Batteries program. Each install triggers a conversation about replacing the existing solar panels too. The Queensland Household Solar Panel Recovery Pilot found 60 to 74 percent of panel removals were complete system replacements driven by upgrades, not failure.
End-of-life volumes are arriving faster than published forecasts assume. By 2030, combined annual volume reaches around 200,000 tonnes. By 2040 it is 470,000 to 620,000 tonnes a year. By 2050 it is between 700,000 tonnes and over a million tonnes annually. An entirely new material stream that does not exist today.
Onshore processing can quadruple the value Australia captures. $0.6 billion of annual materials output by 2040 if we ship the feedstock offshore. $2.8 billion if we process it here. Cumulative value from 2026 to 2040 is $18 billion against $3.9 billion.
Standing this industry up requires four coordinated unlocks: mandatory product stewardship, commercial viability through government underwriting mechanisms (i.e., CfDs) and public procurement, technology readiness through demonstration funding and national standards, and system-wide coordination across reverse logistics, combined hubs and workforce.
The playbook exists overseas. Australia just needs to assemble it.
