Exploring choices and economic impacts for SAF in New Zealand

Ready for Take-off?

Aviation plays a vital role in New Zealand’s economy. It underpins the tourism sector, supports high-value exports, and connects New Zealand with the rest of the world. At the same time, aviation is also a significant contributor to New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions. Without further actions, domestic and international aviation combined could represent around 22% of New Zealand’s net emissions by 2050.

Our latest report, Ready for Take-off?, finds that Sustainable Aviation Fuel is not only an important lever to reduce aviation emissions but also an opportunity to build resilience for the New Zealand economy.

Our modelling shows that:

• SAF can protect up to $4.1 billion in tourism revenue at risk from changing consumer expectations
• Domestic production could add $1.3 billion to GDP and create 5,700 jobs along the supply chain
• A 5% blend by 2030 would have a limited impact on fuel costs, adding less than the cost of a coffee on one-way domestic travel
• Delaying action by just five years could forfeit $1B in net economic value

Crucially, there are no-regret actions New Zealand can take now to lay the groundwork:

1. Signal future SAF demand early to unlock private investment

2. Define acceptable feedstocks and adopt robust certification standards

3. Integrate SAF into the national Emissions Trading Scheme

4. Support first-of-a-kind production projects to kick-start learning

5. Provide strong, coordinated leadership across government to steward the transition

SAF is not just about climate — it’s about competitiveness, energy security, and credible long-term positioning.

Download our report here.